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Lottery Question 
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The key is that although the numbers and colours are inherently linked (i.e. each ball has a number and a colour) the event of picking out a number is completely separate from the event of picking out a colour.

If you were talking about colours then yes you would be correct in going for one of each.

But the BBC are talking about numbers. Colours don't really have a say. Imagine they were all white ping pong balls, does this change the probability of a 10 or a 37 being picked?

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Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:19 pm
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All this talk of probability is a fine link to:

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LOLCATZ!

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Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:20 pm
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F_A_F wrote:
All this talk of probability is a fine link to:

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LOLCATZ!

ROFL!

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Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:22 pm
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So the way I'm seeing this now is this:

Yes, it makes the other colours more likely to be picked however, this is inconsequential as if you took the colours away it still leaves you with 48 numbered balls, and it's the numbers that matter.

So if I take mars-bar-man's example, if 45 balls were green and 4 were blue, then yes it's more likely the ball that will come out will be green, but in reality this doesn't matter as you're trying to match the number, not the colour, and if you go by numbers then each number has an equal chance of being picked?

So you should actually treat the numbers and the colours as separate entities?

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Last edited by Linux_User on Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:23 pm
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Linux_User wrote:
So the way I'm seeing this now is this:

Yes, it makes the other colours more likely to be picked however, this is inconsequential as if you took the colours away it still leaves you with 48 numbered balls, and it's the numbers that matter.

So if I take mars-bar-man's example, if 45 balls were green and 4 were blue, then yes it's more likely the ball that will come out will be green, but in reality this doesn't matter as you're trying to match the number, not the colour, and if you go by numbers then each number has an equal chance of being picked?

(Hmm... the quote button doesn't get your first paragraph?)

Yes... see my last post :D

Pesky hobbitses... changing their postses.

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Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:24 pm
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I think I finally have this sorted in my head. Thank you all! :D

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Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:25 pm
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Linux_User wrote:
I think I finally have this sorted in my head. Thank you all! :D

Yay :D

You were getting me confused half way through and I was beginning to doubt myself :D

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Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:26 pm
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Fogmeister wrote:
You were getting me confused half way through and I was beginning to doubt myself :D


And now you know why I didn't take maths any further after I got a "B" at GCSE. :lol:

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Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:28 pm
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mars-bar-man wrote:
If the ball is replaced after being selected then all the balls are still 1/48 and all colours are equally likely.

Hate to burst your bubble, there's 49 balls in the lotto ;) We've removed one, hence the 1/48[/quote]

Ah okay. :)

I don't play. :P

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Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:58 pm
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