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MrStevenRogers
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:44 pm Posts: 4860
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 |  |  |  | big_D wrote: As has been pointed out, WTO is the default deal for schlubs who can't get a decent deal, so that they aren't totally kicked in the goolies and robbed blind.
Also, dealing with the EU is the bread and butter for many companies, because it is just a stone's throw away, and currently no import/export duties, so their products are competitive and can be transported fairly quickly. The only thing making them less competitive is the cost of the Channel crossing.
Dealing with other parts of the world means the goods have to be transported much further, meaning higher costs, and producing in the UK also isn't very economical, compared to Asia, then you have import duties to add to the price, that makes the goods even less attractive.
And judging by what I see on Amazon Germany, a lot of Brits make a living out of importing Chinese electronics and selling them in Europe. That business model will be hit on the head by Brexit.
There are a lot of things to be considered, especially with businesses, big and small, and how much they currently deal with Europe and how the changes will affect them - for many of these small retailers who specialise in delivering cheap goods to Europe, it will mean folding up their business; generally they are one of a dozen retailers advertising on Amazon and eBay and their prices are about equal to "local" companies. Slap on import duties and the hassles with customs in the target countries and nobody will use them.
For large multi-nationals, it is easier, they just open up a subsidiary in Europe, if they don't already have one. The UK subsidiaries will lose in importance and depending on the amount of business that the UK itself accounts for, many will be downsized or even closed.
Mid sized manufacturing businesses that survive by dealing with Europe will also be in a mess.
Then there is the anti-immigration thing, there the Brexiteers are looking to send back the skilled workers and often the EU skilled workers are there, because there are no UK workers (or not enough) in those fields. That will also have an affect on business as well.
I can see a spike in unemployment caused by a hard Brexit. Over the long term, it will probably level out, but it will be painful in the short term.
Also, what are you going to do about the sudden influx of ex-pat Brits who get kicked out of Europe, as they are no longer allowed to remain, because the UK is no longer part of the EU? Immigration in the EU works both ways, you know.
I hope that it isn't going to be as grim as it looks at the moment. The Brexiteers have won, but I still don't see anything coherent coming out of the UK about how they are going to deal with all those businesses that survive solely through their trade with the EU. |  |  |  |  |
big-D the EU export more to the UK then the UK export to the EU we win on any tariffs. the UK will be a member of NAFTA of which the UK will be able to use any trade deals already agreed. the UK will strike deals via or using WTO with other nations outside of the EU until a 'FREE' trade deal is reached. if A50 is not invoked then a early GE will follow which will result in a massive majority Govt. which part of 'LEAVE' are you failing to understand ...
_________________ Hope this helps . . . Steve ...
Nothing known travels faster than light, except bad news ... HP Pavilion 24" AiO. Ryzen7u. 32GB/1TB M2. Windows 11 Home ...
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:42 am |
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jonbwfc
What's a life?
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:26 pm Posts: 17040
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I'm not entirely sure that's how tariffs work.. Oh, Our future membership of NAFTA has already been agreed then? because we're not currently a member... There is nothing in law to ensure or require this. If Article 50 is not triggered next April there will certainly be hand waving but the fixed term parliament act still applies so May & Co can happily stay in post if they want to. Unless/until that act is repealed (and the current government have no reason to support that happening), it is very unlikely a delay in Brexit would cause sufficient uproar to cause it to happen. If it became obvious they were not going to leave at all that might do it, but I'd imagine successful politicians are quite good at stalling... Which will be nice for them but won't matter a jot in negotiations with other countries. They already have the authority of being the government in place for roughly the next four years. Increasing that to say the next six years won't mean whoever is in charge in France or Germany at that point will have to give us a better deal. The part where one single word somehow equates to a coherent policy and set of agreements. You're operating with a very large number of assumptions. They may all turn out to be correct but that's a fairly long bet at this point. Jon
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:38 am |
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davrosG5
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 6:37 am Posts: 6954 Location: Peebo
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Lets, as a thought exercise, consider a different (and extreme) Yes/No question:
Do you want to be shot at? Yes/No
Lets examine the possible interpretations of a Yes answer: Yes - I'm sick of my life, kill me now with a nice clean head shot Yes - I'm sick of my life, riddle me with bullets and let me bleed out slowly Yes - I'd like to know what it feels like to be shot but I absolutely want to live Yes - I'd like to know what it feels like to be grazed by a bullet, plus I'll have a cool scar afterwards Yes - I'd like to experience the adrenaline rush of bullets flying but I absolutely don't want to to be hit by any of them Yes - I'd like to know what all of the above are like and I've been told by a floppy haired snake, a gurning opportunist and Pob that I can experience all of the above without any of the consequences Yes - The gits in 'the establishment' are telling me to vote No so screw them! I'm going the other way to make the point that I'm important and they should bloody well pay attention to me Yes - What are we voting for here?
So, they are all valid interpretations of a Yes vote but given a voting population of somewhere in excess of 30 - 40 million people it would be frankly ludicrous to assume all Yes votes correspond to a single interpretation.
Back to the real referendum - yes, the people, by a slim majority voted to 'leave' but trying to pretend that that vote magically boils down the single, most extreme interpretation of 'leave' is farcical. It would be the equivalent of a narrow Remain vote being interpreted as going for full on EU - joining the Euro, signing up to the Schengen agreement and anything else that we've currently not signed up to but which is available as part of being in the EU. Obviously the Leave voters should shut up in that case because they lost.
_________________ When they put teeth in your mouth, they spoiled a perfectly good bum. -Billy Connolly (to a heckler)
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:59 am |
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oceanicitl
Official forum cat lady
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 8:04 am Posts: 11039 Location: London
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Going back to jonlumb's post:  |  |  |  | Quote: Remainers “But you don’t know what you want!”
Leavers “We want massive economic growth, no migration, free trade with the EU and every other country, on our terms, the revival of British industry, re-open the coal mines, tea and vicars on every village green, some bunting, and maybe restoration of the empire.”
Remainers “You’re delusional.”
Leavers “We’re a delusional majority. DEMOCRACY! So do the thing that isn’t possible, very quickly, and give all Leavers what they want, even though they don’t know what they want, and ignore the 16 million other voters who disagree. They’re tight trouser latte-sipping hipsters who whine all the time, who cares.” |  |  |  |  |
_________________Still the official cheeky one 
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:01 am |
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MrStevenRogers
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:44 pm Posts: 4860
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it seems we will just have to wait and see and i am smiling all the way to the EU exit door ...
_________________ Hope this helps . . . Steve ...
Nothing known travels faster than light, except bad news ... HP Pavilion 24" AiO. Ryzen7u. 32GB/1TB M2. Windows 11 Home ...
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:28 am |
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jonbwfc
What's a life?
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:26 pm Posts: 17040
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Weirdly, I was actually asked that exact question many years ago as part of an automated tool at my University's careers service. Because I answered 'no' it decided against recommending a career in the armed forces.
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:38 am |
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oceanicitl
Official forum cat lady
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 8:04 am Posts: 11039 Location: London
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Can I ask what you have against Europe? You know a lot of the population of the UK are descended from Europeans?
_________________Still the official cheeky one 
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:55 am |
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MrStevenRogers
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:44 pm Posts: 4860
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i have nothing against Europe or the countries within nothing at all but i have no time whatsoever for the EU. the EU is not Europe ...
_________________ Hope this helps . . . Steve ...
Nothing known travels faster than light, except bad news ... HP Pavilion 24" AiO. Ryzen7u. 32GB/1TB M2. Windows 11 Home ...
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:01 am |
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oceanicitl
Official forum cat lady
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 8:04 am Posts: 11039 Location: London
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Well it was a valid question considering a big part of the leave campaign was anti-immigration.
_________________Still the official cheeky one 
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:27 am |
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MrStevenRogers
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:44 pm Posts: 4860
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anti free movement anti illegals. where is free movement available now within the EU, boarder control and the ability to vet by application any immigration is required for the UK. free movement is history ...
_________________ Hope this helps . . . Steve ...
Nothing known travels faster than light, except bad news ... HP Pavilion 24" AiO. Ryzen7u. 32GB/1TB M2. Windows 11 Home ...
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:36 am |
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big_D
What's a life?
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 8:25 pm Posts: 10691 Location: Bramsche
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Free movement is as available to today as it was when I first left the UK for Europe. The UK and Ireland are the only countries where I have had to show my passport. I often pop over to Holland, Belgium, France for the weekend, over to the Czech Republic or Hungary. I have friends I visit in Italy. All of those are available without having to show my passport or other form of ID. I just drive down to where I want to go, no hassles. It makes it very easy to go for a day out somewhere. The only hassle is trying to get back to the UK. It always felt that the UK never took EU membership seriously. 
_________________ "Do you know what this is? Hmm? No, I can see you do not. You have that vacant look in your eyes, which says hold my head to your ear, you will hear the sea!" - Londo Molari
Executive Producer No Agenda Show 246
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:45 am |
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MrStevenRogers
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:44 pm Posts: 4860
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well take note you will be required to show your passport when you enter the UK in the not to distant future from europe ...
_________________ Hope this helps . . . Steve ...
Nothing known travels faster than light, except bad news ... HP Pavilion 24" AiO. Ryzen7u. 32GB/1TB M2. Windows 11 Home ...
Last edited by MrStevenRogers on Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:53 am |
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oceanicitl
Official forum cat lady
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 8:04 am Posts: 11039 Location: London
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That does make me laugh considering Europeans have been immigrating to the UK since history began. Where do you think the Romans and Vikings came from? Do you seriously think leaving the EU will stop people coming to this country? 
_________________Still the official cheeky one 
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:56 am |
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MrStevenRogers
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:44 pm Posts: 4860
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again we will wait and see WHO has the last laugh as i have heard they may laugh the loudest. i believe the last invasion to the UK was 1066. over and above the the illegals invading vie the EU ...
_________________ Hope this helps . . . Steve ...
Nothing known travels faster than light, except bad news ... HP Pavilion 24" AiO. Ryzen7u. 32GB/1TB M2. Windows 11 Home ...
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:00 pm |
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oceanicitl
Official forum cat lady
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 8:04 am Posts: 11039 Location: London
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Well in that case I'm an 'illegal' as my Mother was Belgian. My boyfriend is an 'illegal' as his Father is Austrian... I could go on but, to be blunt, it's all bollocks
_________________Still the official cheeky one 
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:16 pm |
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