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davrosG5 wrote:
MrStevenRogers wrote:
in any democracy, regardless of party, the majority vote wins the day. or do you advocate another way ...

im well aware of how majorities work. What I'm saying is that to push through a big change off the back of a referendum should require a clear indication that the vast majority is in favour. If you want a clear result you need a much clear result than around 50/50, all that tells you is that the country is divided on the issue. For it to be a clear expression of the will of the people I'd argue you need at least two thirds in favour.

Would you accept a rerun of the referendum, say once the actual detail of the deal is known?
If it went the other way by 0.1% of the vote you'd be totally fine with that?


so a majority is not a majority unless you agree.
i dont want a deal just walk with nothing to pay WTO all the way ...

i would always except a rerun but would you abide by it or ask for another and another and another. thats the EU way.
but the vote has already happened and the result was? ...

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Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:48 pm
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I see absolutely nothing wrong with holding a second referendum on the actual deal rather than the nebulous original question. And no, I wouldn't support rerunning ad-infinitum but that's not what a second referendum would be.

Everyone is well aware of what you want. The problem is that wasn't the question that was asked is just one interpretation, at the extreme end, of what was asked.
The question that was asked was way too simple to encompas everything tied up in it for a start. We're people concerned about sovereignty, immigration, local services, cost, just wanted to give 'the establishment' a kicking or all simultaneously?
I don't ascribe to the idea that everyone who voted for brexit was a racist idiot but I do question the underlying reasoning behind some of those votes and whether the blame for the issues involved were being directed at the right thing.

With regards to the democracy of a referendum result and my statement about what I think the requirements for an afrimative vote should be... the electorate eligible to vote was about 46.5M, leave got 17.4M, remain got 16.1M (or 37.4 and 34.7% respectively). Didn't vote had 12.9M 'votes' or 27.8%.
Any democratic system has to deal with didn't vote. Ours just ignores it - I don't think that's a good choice. If you characterise didn't vote as in favour of the status quo the result is very different (I'm aware there are other ways to view didn't vote). The point is, neither brexit or remain actually convinced a clear majority of the electorate. The consequence of not voting isn't spelled out and there are any number of possible interpretations. Claiming 37.4% represents the will of the people is farcical, just as it is in parliamentary elections. If you ant to claim 'will of the people' crap then you need to account for turnout.
Brexit did win a slim majority of those that bothered to turn out but that isn't the same as having clearly convinced 50% of the population and it's instructive to note that the franchise was excluded from the portion of the population that will be affected by the result for the longest period of time (16 to 18 year olds). Interesting they were included for the Scottish referendum but excluded in Brexit (I wonder why).

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Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:53 pm
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MrStevenRogers wrote:
i believe you need to make sure you understand WTO. as most of the worlds basic trade agreements are based on WTO. its a way to start trade under a set of rules that allow modification to those trading. please get the EU way of doing things out of the way. we are no longer members of the EU ...


As has been stated on many occasions, WTO rules are for those who are in such a poor bargaining position, that they incapable of reaching a proper trade agreement.

It is the equivalent of a soap-on-a-rope for the clumsy prisoner who keeps dropping his in the shower.

Given the low number of people who voted, the difference is little more than a rounding error. We have to abide by what the government does with the information and hope they make the best of it. Going for WTO would be cutting off your nose to spite your face, it would be financially ruinous to the UK.

MrStevenRogers wrote:
big_D wrote:
And many UK companies that rely on exports and services to the EU will find themselves left high and dry.


i do hope many, many German companies as well. WTO all the way. please have a nice day ...

The problem is, many German companies are export orientated, but a majority of it either goes to the USA or to the East. The company I work for makes manufacturing facilities, specifically fluid and hydraulic systems for production lines. That means that currently a lot of the work is the internal German market, plus a lot of work in China, the USA and Eastern Europe.

A lot of "German" electrical goods, for example, will be coming from China, Vietnam, India etc. and therefore outside of any current EU trade deals. It could drive the prices up, because they usually come over on the super ships and I believe that the UK doesn't have any ports that can accomodate them - heck even Hamburg has to wait for the ships to offload part of their cargo in Rotterdam, because, although the warfs are big enough there is not enough draft for the ships to come in fully laiden.

Currently that means that the stuff has to be offloaded in Europe and then transferred to the UK on smaller ships / container lorries on ROROs. If the UK closes its border to this traffic / puts on tarrifs for these goods, it is going to put up the prices of a lot of products - that or the UK will need to invest heavily in new port facilities to take on the megaships - Liverpool2 should be capable of taking the ships, when it is finished and required an investment of over 300M UKP.

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Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:40 am
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davrosG5 wrote:
Oh do grow up (not you spreadie).
The point is that the government has treated the result of the referendum as if it was a landslide in favour of Brexit when it was nothing of the sort. 52/48 is not a landslide.


At best, it can be interpreted as “I don’t know - please give me more useful information”, much like the last general election.

http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/Coin/
An exercise for you. Go to this site (it‘s a coin tossing simulation), and tell it to toss 1000 coins (it can’t do 34 million, but it will give cumulative results if you wish to go that far - the retired amongst you may wish to make that your mission for the next week or so - or just toss a coin 34 million times!). Run the simulation, and check the ratios.

You will get close to 50/50 BUT you won’t get exactly 50/50. An example 1000 toss simulation gives you:
Heads: 514/1000 = 0.514 - around 51%
Tails: 486/1000 = 0.486 - around 48%

I ran this a few times, and the results come out around the same every time. Sometime more heads than tails, sometime more tails than heads. The referendum could have easily have been run by everyone tossing a coin and voting the way to coin landed (let’s say heads for remain because The Queen, etc), and you would have got pretty much the same result.

So we’re in the realm of randomness here - the kind of margin that in any other kind of poll would bring the “+- 5% margin of error” health warning. For it to be a definitive result, the difference would have to be, as others have argued, way out of the possibility of it happening just by chance (yes, yes, I know, you could toss a coin and it would come up all heads - but the chances of that happening are infinitesimally small).

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Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:37 am
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davrosG5 wrote:
I see absolutely nothing wrong with holding a second referendum on the actual deal rather than the nebulous original question. And no, I wouldn't support rerunning ad-infinitum but that's not what a second referendum would be.

Everyone is well aware of what you want. The problem is that wasn't the question that was asked is just one interpretation, at the extreme end, of what was asked.
The question that was asked was way too simple to encompas everything tied up in it for a start. We're people concerned about sovereignty, immigration, local services, cost, just wanted to give 'the establishment' a kicking or all simultaneously?
I don't ascribe to the idea that everyone who voted for brexit was a racist idiot but I do question the underlying reasoning behind some of those votes and whether the blame for the issues involved were being directed at the right thing.

With regards to the democracy of a referendum result and my statement about what I think the requirements for an afrimative vote should be... the electorate eligible to vote was about 46.5M, leave got 17.4M, remain got 16.1M (or 37.4 and 34.7% respectively). Didn't vote had 12.9M 'votes' or 27.8%.
Any democratic system has to deal with didn't vote. Ours just ignores it - I don't think that's a good choice. If you characterise didn't vote as in favour of the status quo the result is very different (I'm aware there are other ways to view didn't vote). The point is, neither brexit or remain actually convinced a clear majority of the electorate. The consequence of not voting isn't spelled out and there are any number of possible interpretations. Claiming 37.4% represents the will of the people is farcical, just as it is in parliamentary elections. If you ant to claim 'will of the people' crap then you need to account for turnout.
Brexit did win a slim majority of those that bothered to turn out but that isn't the same as having clearly convinced 50% of the population and it's instructive to note that the franchise was excluded from the portion of the population that will be affected by the result for the longest period of time (16 to 18 year olds). Interesting they were included for the Scottish referendum but excluded in Brexit (I wonder why).


a referendum was held and the result was final. no more referendums allowed even on the final deal as there will not be a final deal.
the EU will not agree to any proposals we place before them and will result in leave with no deal whatsoever. therefore no need for a referendum as there will be no deal to hold a referendum on ...

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Last edited by MrStevenRogers on Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:57 pm
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big_D wrote:
MrStevenRogers wrote:
i believe you need to make sure you understand WTO. as most of the worlds basic trade agreements are based on WTO. its a way to start trade under a set of rules that allow modification to those trading. please get the EU way of doing things out of the way. we are no longer members of the EU ...


As has been stated on many occasions, WTO rules are for those who are in such a poor bargaining position, that they incapable of reaching a proper trade agreement.

It is the equivalent of a soap-on-a-rope for the clumsy prisoner who keeps dropping his in the shower.

Given the low number of people who voted, the difference is little more than a rounding error. We have to abide by what the government does with the information and hope they make the best of it. Going for WTO would be cutting off your nose to spite your face, it would be financially ruinous to the UK.

MrStevenRogers wrote:
big_D wrote:
And many UK companies that rely on exports and services to the EU will find themselves left high and dry.


i do hope many, many German companies as well. WTO all the way. please have a nice day ...

The problem is, many German companies are export orientated, but a majority of it either goes to the USA or to the East. The company I work for makes manufacturing facilities, specifically fluid and hydraulic systems for production lines. That means that currently a lot of the work is the internal German market, plus a lot of work in China, the USA and Eastern Europe.

A lot of "German" electrical goods, for example, will be coming from China, Vietnam, India etc. and therefore outside of any current EU trade deals. It could drive the prices up, because they usually come over on the super ships and I believe that the UK doesn't have any ports that can accomodate them - heck even Hamburg has to wait for the ships to offload part of their cargo in Rotterdam, because, although the warfs are big enough there is not enough draft for the ships to come in fully laiden.

Currently that means that the stuff has to be offloaded in Europe and then transferred to the UK on smaller ships / container lorries on ROROs. If the UK closes its border to this traffic / puts on tarrifs for these goods, it is going to put up the prices of a lot of products - that or the UK will need to invest heavily in new port facilities to take on the megaships - Liverpool2 should be capable of taking the ships, when it is finished and required an investment of over 300M UKP.


there will be no deal trade or otherwise with the EU. we will leave without any deal. therefore WTO. no deal means WTO. which of that does anybody not understand.

no deal means trading under WTO only ...

ps. hows AfD doing ? ...

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Last edited by MrStevenRogers on Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:00 pm
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paulzolo wrote:
davrosG5 wrote:
Oh do grow up (not you spreadie).
The point is that the government has treated the result of the referendum as if it was a landslide in favour of Brexit when it was nothing of the sort. 52/48 is not a landslide.


At best, it can be interpreted as “I don’t know - please give me more useful information”, much like the last general election.

http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/Coin/
An exercise for you. Go to this site (it‘s a coin tossing simulation), and tell it to toss 1000 coins (it can’t do 34 million, but it will give cumulative results if you wish to go that far - the retired amongst you may wish to make that your mission for the next week or so - or just toss a coin 34 million times!). Run the simulation, and check the ratios.

You will get close to 50/50 BUT you won’t get exactly 50/50. An example 1000 toss simulation gives you:
Heads: 514/1000 = 0.514 - around 51%
Tails: 486/1000 = 0.486 - around 48%

I ran this a few times, and the results come out around the same every time. Sometime more heads than tails, sometime more tails than heads. The referendum could have easily have been run by everyone tossing a coin and voting the way to coin landed (let’s say heads for remain because The Queen, etc), and you would have got pretty much the same result.

So we’re in the realm of randomness here - the kind of margin that in any other kind of poll would bring the “+- 5% margin of error” health warning. For it to be a definitive result, the difference would have to be, as others have argued, way out of the possibility of it happening just by chance (yes, yes, I know, you could toss a coin and it would come up all heads - but the chances of that happening are infinitesimally small).


maybe we should use that method at every general election. a vote is a vote regardless of how the percentages work out. its either win or lose ...

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Hope this helps . . . Steve ...

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Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:02 pm
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MrStevenRogers wrote:
paulzolo wrote:
davrosG5 wrote:
Oh do grow up (not you spreadie).
The point is that the government has treated the result of the referendum as if it was a landslide in favour of Brexit when it was nothing of the sort. 52/48 is not a landslide.


At best, it can be interpreted as “I don’t know - please give me more useful information”, much like the last general election.

http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/Coin/
An exercise for you. Go to this site (it‘s a coin tossing simulation), and tell it to toss 1000 coins (it can’t do 34 million, but it will give cumulative results if you wish to go that far - the retired amongst you may wish to make that your mission for the next week or so - or just toss a coin 34 million times!). Run the simulation, and check the ratios.

You will get close to 50/50 BUT you won’t get exactly 50/50. An example 1000 toss simulation gives you:
Heads: 514/1000 = 0.514 - around 51%
Tails: 486/1000 = 0.486 - around 48%

I ran this a few times, and the results come out around the same every time. Sometime more heads than tails, sometime more tails than heads. The referendum could have easily have been run by everyone tossing a coin and voting the way to coin landed (let’s say heads for remain because The Queen, etc), and you would have got pretty much the same result.

So we’re in the realm of randomness here - the kind of margin that in any other kind of poll would bring the “+- 5% margin of error” health warning. For it to be a definitive result, the difference would have to be, as others have argued, way out of the possibility of it happening just by chance (yes, yes, I know, you could toss a coin and it would come up all heads - but the chances of that happening are infinitesimally small).


maybe we should use that method at every general election. a vote is a vote regardless of how the percentages work out. its either win or lose ...


The difference between the referendum and a general election is that the electorate gets to have another say ever few years. You may remember that Theresa May went to the country this year, hoping for a repeat, or an improvement, of her party’s performance in the previous election. She did significantly worse, and had to bribe the DUP to act as a support structure for her key votes in parliament.

The referendum is being treated as a one and for all answer to a question. However, as we live in a democracy (as you love to point out, often on bold), we can continue discuss the result, the implications, note the negatives and positives (the former seeming to outweigh the latter). There is no “shutting up and putting up”, which is what you and your brexit loving cohorts seem to want. There will be an ongoing discussion about this for a long, long time to come. Indeed, it seems that there is a better picture of the mess we’re in now than there was during the referendum campaign.

Remember that those who wanted out didn’t “shut up and put up” since 1973 when the previous referendum was held. So you can’t complain if the losing side continues the discussion now. Certainly, Volksleader Farage said that a small margin against his position would mean that it was not the end of the matter, so you can’t complain if it‘s not the end of the matter for those on a contrary position if the numbers fell with such a small margin in his favour.

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Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:58 am
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good god what makes you believe i am against discussion. i think that its quite the opposite. i am about the only one on the forum who supports leave the EU entirely. i have not seen anybody supporting my views only everybody opposing my views with their views, which is to remain within the EU.

the referendum was very simple leave or remain there were no other options available. yet everyone agreed on the referendum questions and to abide by the result.
there is no middle ground with the EU its either in or out. that is something the EU have decided. i happen to agree with the EU. we are either in or we are out. the referendum result stated out. so the referendum and the referendum result agrees with the EU position. it really couldn't be clearer.

yes we do live in a democracy which governs by majority voting. if the minority disagree with the majority they are allowed to voice that by all legal means.
but to try to over turn that majority by means other then 'all legal means' is not democracy its called ... (i will let you fill in the blanks).

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Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:55 am
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Really looking forward to WTO rules if this is the sort of crap we can expect:
Punitive export tariff placed on planes made in Northern Ireland

219% trade levy from the US. Such fun.

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Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:25 am
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davrosG5 wrote:
Really looking forward to WTO rules if this is the sort of crap we can expect:
Punitive export tariff placed on planes made in Northern Ireland

219% trade levy from the US. Such fun.

Not exactly WTO

Quote:
The US Department of Commerce ruled in favour of Boeing in its legal battle with Bombardier


So its the US government (with Trump America 1st), protecting US jobs in a major US industry - I would have been flabbergasted if it had been any other result

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Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:12 am
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Yes, however in the article I believe it says the bidding process complied with WTO rules around state aid:

Quote:
The UK government believes clearly that the support that we have given through repayable launch investment to the C-Series project is legitimate, is lawful, is within World Trade Organisation rules and therefore that the actions that have been brought around this case are unwarranted.

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Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:57 pm
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davrosG5 wrote:
Yes, however in the article I believe it says the bidding process complied with WTO rules around state aid:

Quote:
The UK government believes clearly that the support that we have given through repayable launch investment to the C-Series project is legitimate, is lawful, is within World Trade Organisation rules and therefore that the actions that have been brought around this case are unwarranted.

So the UK (and Canadian) government believe they did nothing wrong, the US government disagree. I believe there are at least 2 formal appeals available

In the end governments will generally interpret laws in a way that best suits them

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Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:58 am
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MrStevenRogers wrote:
ps. hows AfD doing ? ...

Not good. The leader left the party the day after the elections and is trying to set up a new party...

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Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:32 pm
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Update to the AfD: the former leader is now being investigate for disrepute and for stealing the member database from the AfD.

The rest of the party has pretty much disappeared from the map.

CDU/CSU look like they have sorted out their major differences and are looking to make a "Jamaica coalition" (Black (CDU/CSI), yellow (FDP) and green (the Greens)), going forward to make the new government. The old coalition partner (SDP) has now put itself forward as the opposition, after the disastrous results (worst since before the 2nd World War, where the party was banned!).

There is a bit of fighting going on, about who sits next to the AfD, it seems that they have some sort of contagious disease and nobody wants to sit anywhere near them. :lol:

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