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MrStevenRogers
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:44 pm Posts: 4860
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so a majority is not a majority unless you agree. i dont want a deal just walk with nothing to pay WTO all the way ... i would always except a rerun but would you abide by it or ask for another and another and another. thats the EU way. but the vote has already happened and the result was? ...
_________________ Hope this helps . . . Steve ...
Nothing known travels faster than light, except bad news ... HP Pavilion 24" AiO. Ryzen7u. 32GB/1TB M2. Windows 11 Home ...
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Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:48 pm |
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davrosG5
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 6:37 am Posts: 6954 Location: Peebo
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I see absolutely nothing wrong with holding a second referendum on the actual deal rather than the nebulous original question. And no, I wouldn't support rerunning ad-infinitum but that's not what a second referendum would be.
Everyone is well aware of what you want. The problem is that wasn't the question that was asked is just one interpretation, at the extreme end, of what was asked. The question that was asked was way too simple to encompas everything tied up in it for a start. We're people concerned about sovereignty, immigration, local services, cost, just wanted to give 'the establishment' a kicking or all simultaneously? I don't ascribe to the idea that everyone who voted for brexit was a racist idiot but I do question the underlying reasoning behind some of those votes and whether the blame for the issues involved were being directed at the right thing.
With regards to the democracy of a referendum result and my statement about what I think the requirements for an afrimative vote should be... the electorate eligible to vote was about 46.5M, leave got 17.4M, remain got 16.1M (or 37.4 and 34.7% respectively). Didn't vote had 12.9M 'votes' or 27.8%. Any democratic system has to deal with didn't vote. Ours just ignores it - I don't think that's a good choice. If you characterise didn't vote as in favour of the status quo the result is very different (I'm aware there are other ways to view didn't vote). The point is, neither brexit or remain actually convinced a clear majority of the electorate. The consequence of not voting isn't spelled out and there are any number of possible interpretations. Claiming 37.4% represents the will of the people is farcical, just as it is in parliamentary elections. If you ant to claim 'will of the people' crap then you need to account for turnout. Brexit did win a slim majority of those that bothered to turn out but that isn't the same as having clearly convinced 50% of the population and it's instructive to note that the franchise was excluded from the portion of the population that will be affected by the result for the longest period of time (16 to 18 year olds). Interesting they were included for the Scottish referendum but excluded in Brexit (I wonder why).
_________________ When they put teeth in your mouth, they spoiled a perfectly good bum. -Billy Connolly (to a heckler)
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Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:53 pm |
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big_D
What's a life?
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 8:25 pm Posts: 10691 Location: Bramsche
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As has been stated on many occasions, WTO rules are for those who are in such a poor bargaining position, that they incapable of reaching a proper trade agreement. It is the equivalent of a soap-on-a-rope for the clumsy prisoner who keeps dropping his in the shower. Given the low number of people who voted, the difference is little more than a rounding error. We have to abide by what the government does with the information and hope they make the best of it. Going for WTO would be cutting off your nose to spite your face, it would be financially ruinous to the UK. The problem is, many German companies are export orientated, but a majority of it either goes to the USA or to the East. The company I work for makes manufacturing facilities, specifically fluid and hydraulic systems for production lines. That means that currently a lot of the work is the internal German market, plus a lot of work in China, the USA and Eastern Europe. A lot of "German" electrical goods, for example, will be coming from China, Vietnam, India etc. and therefore outside of any current EU trade deals. It could drive the prices up, because they usually come over on the super ships and I believe that the UK doesn't have any ports that can accomodate them - heck even Hamburg has to wait for the ships to offload part of their cargo in Rotterdam, because, although the warfs are big enough there is not enough draft for the ships to come in fully laiden. Currently that means that the stuff has to be offloaded in Europe and then transferred to the UK on smaller ships / container lorries on ROROs. If the UK closes its border to this traffic / puts on tarrifs for these goods, it is going to put up the prices of a lot of products - that or the UK will need to invest heavily in new port facilities to take on the megaships - Liverpool2 should be capable of taking the ships, when it is finished and required an investment of over 300M UKP.
_________________ "Do you know what this is? Hmm? No, I can see you do not. You have that vacant look in your eyes, which says hold my head to your ear, you will hear the sea!" - Londo Molari
Executive Producer No Agenda Show 246
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Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:40 am |
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paulzolo
What's a life?
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 6:27 pm Posts: 12251
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At best, it can be interpreted as “I don’t know - please give me more useful information”, much like the last general election. http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/Coin/An exercise for you. Go to this site (it‘s a coin tossing simulation), and tell it to toss 1000 coins (it can’t do 34 million, but it will give cumulative results if you wish to go that far - the retired amongst you may wish to make that your mission for the next week or so - or just toss a coin 34 million times!). Run the simulation, and check the ratios. You will get close to 50/50 BUT you won’t get exactly 50/50. An example 1000 toss simulation gives you: Heads: 514/1000 = 0.514 - around 51% Tails: 486/1000 = 0.486 - around 48% I ran this a few times, and the results come out around the same every time. Sometime more heads than tails, sometime more tails than heads. The referendum could have easily have been run by everyone tossing a coin and voting the way to coin landed (let’s say heads for remain because The Queen, etc), and you would have got pretty much the same result. So we’re in the realm of randomness here - the kind of margin that in any other kind of poll would bring the “+- 5% margin of error” health warning. For it to be a definitive result, the difference would have to be, as others have argued, way out of the possibility of it happening just by chance (yes, yes, I know, you could toss a coin and it would come up all heads - but the chances of that happening are infinitesimally small).
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Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:37 am |
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MrStevenRogers
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:44 pm Posts: 4860
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| | | | davrosG5 wrote: I see absolutely nothing wrong with holding a second referendum on the actual deal rather than the nebulous original question. And no, I wouldn't support rerunning ad-infinitum but that's not what a second referendum would be.
Everyone is well aware of what you want. The problem is that wasn't the question that was asked is just one interpretation, at the extreme end, of what was asked. The question that was asked was way too simple to encompas everything tied up in it for a start. We're people concerned about sovereignty, immigration, local services, cost, just wanted to give 'the establishment' a kicking or all simultaneously? I don't ascribe to the idea that everyone who voted for brexit was a racist idiot but I do question the underlying reasoning behind some of those votes and whether the blame for the issues involved were being directed at the right thing.
With regards to the democracy of a referendum result and my statement about what I think the requirements for an afrimative vote should be... the electorate eligible to vote was about 46.5M, leave got 17.4M, remain got 16.1M (or 37.4 and 34.7% respectively). Didn't vote had 12.9M 'votes' or 27.8%. Any democratic system has to deal with didn't vote. Ours just ignores it - I don't think that's a good choice. If you characterise didn't vote as in favour of the status quo the result is very different (I'm aware there are other ways to view didn't vote). The point is, neither brexit or remain actually convinced a clear majority of the electorate. The consequence of not voting isn't spelled out and there are any number of possible interpretations. Claiming 37.4% represents the will of the people is farcical, just as it is in parliamentary elections. If you ant to claim 'will of the people' crap then you need to account for turnout. Brexit did win a slim majority of those that bothered to turn out but that isn't the same as having clearly convinced 50% of the population and it's instructive to note that the franchise was excluded from the portion of the population that will be affected by the result for the longest period of time (16 to 18 year olds). Interesting they were included for the Scottish referendum but excluded in Brexit (I wonder why). | | | | |
a referendum was held and the result was final. no more referendums allowed even on the final deal as there will not be a final deal. the EU will not agree to any proposals we place before them and will result in leave with no deal whatsoever. therefore no need for a referendum as there will be no deal to hold a referendum on ...
_________________ Hope this helps . . . Steve ...
Nothing known travels faster than light, except bad news ... HP Pavilion 24" AiO. Ryzen7u. 32GB/1TB M2. Windows 11 Home ...
Last edited by MrStevenRogers on Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:57 pm |
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MrStevenRogers
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:44 pm Posts: 4860
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| | | | big_D wrote: As has been stated on many occasions, WTO rules are for those who are in such a poor bargaining position, that they incapable of reaching a proper trade agreement. It is the equivalent of a soap-on-a-rope for the clumsy prisoner who keeps dropping his in the shower. Given the low number of people who voted, the difference is little more than a rounding error. We have to abide by what the government does with the information and hope they make the best of it. Going for WTO would be cutting off your nose to spite your face, it would be financially ruinous to the UK. The problem is, many German companies are export orientated, but a majority of it either goes to the USA or to the East. The company I work for makes manufacturing facilities, specifically fluid and hydraulic systems for production lines. That means that currently a lot of the work is the internal German market, plus a lot of work in China, the USA and Eastern Europe. A lot of "German" electrical goods, for example, will be coming from China, Vietnam, India etc. and therefore outside of any current EU trade deals. It could drive the prices up, because they usually come over on the super ships and I believe that the UK doesn't have any ports that can accomodate them - heck even Hamburg has to wait for the ships to offload part of their cargo in Rotterdam, because, although the warfs are big enough there is not enough draft for the ships to come in fully laiden. Currently that means that the stuff has to be offloaded in Europe and then transferred to the UK on smaller ships / container lorries on ROROs. If the UK closes its border to this traffic / puts on tarrifs for these goods, it is going to put up the prices of a lot of products - that or the UK will need to invest heavily in new port facilities to take on the megaships - Liverpool2 should be capable of taking the ships, when it is finished and required an investment of over 300M UKP. | | | | |
there will be no deal trade or otherwise with the EU. we will leave without any deal. therefore WTO. no deal means WTO. which of that does anybody not understand. no deal means trading under WTO only ... ps. hows AfD doing ? ...
_________________ Hope this helps . . . Steve ...
Nothing known travels faster than light, except bad news ... HP Pavilion 24" AiO. Ryzen7u. 32GB/1TB M2. Windows 11 Home ...
Last edited by MrStevenRogers on Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:00 pm |
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MrStevenRogers
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:44 pm Posts: 4860
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| | | | paulzolo wrote: At best, it can be interpreted as “I don’t know - please give me more useful information”, much like the last general election. http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/Coin/An exercise for you. Go to this site (it‘s a coin tossing simulation), and tell it to toss 1000 coins (it can’t do 34 million, but it will give cumulative results if you wish to go that far - the retired amongst you may wish to make that your mission for the next week or so - or just toss a coin 34 million times!). Run the simulation, and check the ratios. You will get close to 50/50 BUT you won’t get exactly 50/50. An example 1000 toss simulation gives you: Heads: 514/1000 = 0.514 - around 51% Tails: 486/1000 = 0.486 - around 48% I ran this a few times, and the results come out around the same every time. Sometime more heads than tails, sometime more tails than heads. The referendum could have easily have been run by everyone tossing a coin and voting the way to coin landed (let’s say heads for remain because The Queen, etc), and you would have got pretty much the same result. So we’re in the realm of randomness here - the kind of margin that in any other kind of poll would bring the “+- 5% margin of error” health warning. For it to be a definitive result, the difference would have to be, as others have argued, way out of the possibility of it happening just by chance (yes, yes, I know, you could toss a coin and it would come up all heads - but the chances of that happening are infinitesimally small). | | | | |
maybe we should use that method at every general election. a vote is a vote regardless of how the percentages work out. its either win or lose ...
_________________ Hope this helps . . . Steve ...
Nothing known travels faster than light, except bad news ... HP Pavilion 24" AiO. Ryzen7u. 32GB/1TB M2. Windows 11 Home ...
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Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:02 pm |
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paulzolo
What's a life?
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 6:27 pm Posts: 12251
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| | | | MrStevenRogers wrote: | | | | paulzolo wrote: At best, it can be interpreted as “I don’t know - please give me more useful information”, much like the last general election. http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/Coin/An exercise for you. Go to this site (it‘s a coin tossing simulation), and tell it to toss 1000 coins (it can’t do 34 million, but it will give cumulative results if you wish to go that far - the retired amongst you may wish to make that your mission for the next week or so - or just toss a coin 34 million times!). Run the simulation, and check the ratios. You will get close to 50/50 BUT you won’t get exactly 50/50. An example 1000 toss simulation gives you: Heads: 514/1000 = 0.514 - around 51% Tails: 486/1000 = 0.486 - around 48% I ran this a few times, and the results come out around the same every time. Sometime more heads than tails, sometime more tails than heads. The referendum could have easily have been run by everyone tossing a coin and voting the way to coin landed (let’s say heads for remain because The Queen, etc), and you would have got pretty much the same result. So we’re in the realm of randomness here - the kind of margin that in any other kind of poll would bring the “+- 5% margin of error” health warning. For it to be a definitive result, the difference would have to be, as others have argued, way out of the possibility of it happening just by chance (yes, yes, I know, you could toss a coin and it would come up all heads - but the chances of that happening are infinitesimally small). | | | | |
maybe we should use that method at every general election. a vote is a vote regardless of how the percentages work out. its either win or lose ... | | | | |
The difference between the referendum and a general election is that the electorate gets to have another say ever few years. You may remember that Theresa May went to the country this year, hoping for a repeat, or an improvement, of her party’s performance in the previous election. She did significantly worse, and had to bribe the DUP to act as a support structure for her key votes in parliament. The referendum is being treated as a one and for all answer to a question. However, as we live in a democracy (as you love to point out, often on bold), we can continue discuss the result, the implications, note the negatives and positives (the former seeming to outweigh the latter). There is no “shutting up and putting up”, which is what you and your brexit loving cohorts seem to want. There will be an ongoing discussion about this for a long, long time to come. Indeed, it seems that there is a better picture of the mess we’re in now than there was during the referendum campaign. Remember that those who wanted out didn’t “shut up and put up” since 1973 when the previous referendum was held. So you can’t complain if the losing side continues the discussion now. Certainly, Volksleader Farage said that a small margin against his position would mean that it was not the end of the matter, so you can’t complain if it‘s not the end of the matter for those on a contrary position if the numbers fell with such a small margin in his favour.
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Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:58 am |
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MrStevenRogers
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:44 pm Posts: 4860
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good god what makes you believe i am against discussion. i think that its quite the opposite. i am about the only one on the forum who supports leave the EU entirely. i have not seen anybody supporting my views only everybody opposing my views with their views, which is to remain within the EU.
the referendum was very simple leave or remain there were no other options available. yet everyone agreed on the referendum questions and to abide by the result. there is no middle ground with the EU its either in or out. that is something the EU have decided. i happen to agree with the EU. we are either in or we are out. the referendum result stated out. so the referendum and the referendum result agrees with the EU position. it really couldn't be clearer.
yes we do live in a democracy which governs by majority voting. if the minority disagree with the majority they are allowed to voice that by all legal means. but to try to over turn that majority by means other then 'all legal means' is not democracy its called ... (i will let you fill in the blanks).
_________________ Hope this helps . . . Steve ...
Nothing known travels faster than light, except bad news ... HP Pavilion 24" AiO. Ryzen7u. 32GB/1TB M2. Windows 11 Home ...
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Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:55 am |
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davrosG5
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 6:37 am Posts: 6954 Location: Peebo
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Really looking forward to WTO rules if this is the sort of crap we can expect: Punitive export tariff placed on planes made in Northern Ireland219% trade levy from the US. Such fun.
_________________ When they put teeth in your mouth, they spoiled a perfectly good bum. -Billy Connolly (to a heckler)
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Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:25 am |
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hifidelity2
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 1:03 pm Posts: 5041 Location: London
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Not exactly WTO So its the US government (with Trump America 1st), protecting US jobs in a major US industry - I would have been flabbergasted if it had been any other result
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Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:12 am |
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davrosG5
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 6:37 am Posts: 6954 Location: Peebo
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Yes, however in the article I believe it says the bidding process complied with WTO rules around state aid:
_________________ When they put teeth in your mouth, they spoiled a perfectly good bum. -Billy Connolly (to a heckler)
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Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:57 pm |
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hifidelity2
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 1:03 pm Posts: 5041 Location: London
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So the UK (and Canadian) government believe they did nothing wrong, the US government disagree. I believe there are at least 2 formal appeals available In the end governments will generally interpret laws in a way that best suits them
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Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:58 am |
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big_D
What's a life?
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 8:25 pm Posts: 10691 Location: Bramsche
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Not good. The leader left the party the day after the elections and is trying to set up a new party...
_________________ "Do you know what this is? Hmm? No, I can see you do not. You have that vacant look in your eyes, which says hold my head to your ear, you will hear the sea!" - Londo Molari
Executive Producer No Agenda Show 246
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Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:32 pm |
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big_D
What's a life?
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 8:25 pm Posts: 10691 Location: Bramsche
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Update to the AfD: the former leader is now being investigate for disrepute and for stealing the member database from the AfD. The rest of the party has pretty much disappeared from the map. CDU/CSU look like they have sorted out their major differences and are looking to make a "Jamaica coalition" (Black (CDU/CSI), yellow (FDP) and green (the Greens)), going forward to make the new government. The old coalition partner (SDP) has now put itself forward as the opposition, after the disastrous results (worst since before the 2nd World War, where the party was banned!). There is a bit of fighting going on, about who sits next to the AfD, it seems that they have some sort of contagious disease and nobody wants to sit anywhere near them.
_________________ "Do you know what this is? Hmm? No, I can see you do not. You have that vacant look in your eyes, which says hold my head to your ear, you will hear the sea!" - Londo Molari
Executive Producer No Agenda Show 246
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Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:09 pm |
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