I'd agree with you on this up to about a week ago,but I've read some things and there are rumours of other possibilities.
The Article 50 declaration can be revoked, with the unanimous agreement of the other member states. Rumours are the EU negotiators have been dropping some hints that such a thing is actually a viable option (you'd think 'not a cat in hell's chance' but apparently so), should negotiations wander on towards the deadline. Rumours also say the 'pro EU' wing of the Tory party - Ken Clark etc - are rumbling about pushing for it, on the basis that 'no deal' would cause significant and long term damage to the state and the economy and therefore falling out is very much not in the country's interests, and they'd have to carry the can for it and be out of government for a generation. So they may be saying 'we are definitely still leaving' right now, but apparently there are plans for a big lump of brinksmanship on both sides.
The point is, right now,
we simply don't know what's going to happen. There are no precedents.
And yes, you might say, that's ignoring the will of people. But right now quite a lot of the tory party don't give much a toss for the will of the people. The will of the people as expressed last week gave them an awful lot of grief. Given the election result quite a few Tory MPs think they're on shaky ground, and they also don't think Ruth Davidson will be able to repeat her feats in Scotland now the SNP have put publicly IndyRef2 on the back burner after getting a kicking over it. So given most opinion is we'll have another election well before the five years is up, and there's a good chance when that happens they'll end up in opposition, they feel no great love for the population at large.
Politically, the election may not have changed the government, but it is thought to have changed the battlefield. Brexit wasn't factor in the election at all, and the Tories aren't likely to care near as much about it if it's something they can't use to stay in power.
None of this is determined, but all of this is possible.
That we do. I don't think I can predict where we'll be in 18 months with any certainty at all.
