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| 'One major oil company will turn its back on fossil fuels' http://x404.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=23190 |
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| Author: | pcernie [ Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 'One major oil company will turn its back on fossil fuels' |
http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... y-projects It'll take decades, with a rush to sell off what's left before the show's over. Plus the infrastructure for fossil fuels' replacement... |
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| Author: | jonbwfc [ Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 'One major oil company will turn its back on fossil fuels' |
There's a very interesting premise tucked away in that article. The cost of getting oil out of the earth is rising. We've found all the 'low hanging fruit' of oil production and what's left is in horrible, expensive places to drill. The price crash on crude is temporary and artificial but there probably is a ceiling you can realistically charge for a barrel of crude. At the same time, the research push on renewable tech is causing it to be cheaper and cheaper to implement. Essentially, the profitability of oil production is on a downward curve and the profitability of renewable production is on an upward curve. Eventually those two curves are going to cross. At that point, anyone still drilling for oil is a fool. I don't know when that is going to be, I have some idea it's going to be at least a decade away. If I was to make a guess I'd say maybe 20 years. |
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