Reply to topic  [ 33 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3  Next
New diesel and petrol vehicles to be banned from 2040 
Author Message
Legend

Joined: Sun Apr 26, 2009 12:30 pm
Posts: 45931
Location: Belfast
Reply with quote
New diesel and petrol vehicles to be banned from 2040 - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40723581

Well, when you've spent so much time not giving assurances to car manufacturers, you maybe hear a thing or two by accident...

_________________
Plain English advice on everything money, purchase and service related:

http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/


Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:34 pm
Profile
Doesn't have much of a life
User avatar

Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 12:43 pm
Posts: 1798
Location: Manchester
Reply with quote
Better start building those extra power stations now then, eh?

_________________
* Steve *

* Witty statement goes here *


Wed Jul 26, 2017 6:55 am
Profile
What's a life?
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:26 pm
Posts: 17040
Reply with quote
steve74 wrote:
Better start building those extra power stations now then, eh?

While new nuclear seems to be a bit up in the air at the mo, if the rate of progress of 'renewables' power generation continues at the kind of rate it's doing, we're probably going to be OK (and it's going to be much cheaper into the bargain). Slight point of interest is most of the best sites for wind power in the UK are in Scotland. So if Scotland goes independent before say 2050 - looking unlikely right now, but certainly not impossible - England may have to buy energy from Scotland to keep the lights on.

However I think possibly the way to go is decentralise things, rather than rely on massive power plants. Even in the UK, with a couple of solar panels and a Tesla powerbank, right now you can keep say a Nissan leaf or a Tesla 3 charged up without taking a huge amount out of the grid to do so, at least in the south of England. And while that's a significant investment (car, panels, powerbank) today, it'll probably be a quarter of the price in ten years, which is within the range of a good portion of the UK population.

Of course this does require a government that decides our power generation strategy based on sound evidence and long term thinking, rather than... I dunno... dogmatism and vested interests. Wonder how that will go?

As it is overall this looks to me very much like one of those 'legislate to make something happen which is going to happen anyway so it makes us look good when it happens' kind of things. I strongly believe that by 2040 electric cars will be completely 'mainstream' and in sheer TCO terms they blow ICE cars out of the water, even today. If their rate of development continues at anywhere near the pace it currently is going, you'd have to be out of your mind to buy a new ICE car in 2040 for day to day use. I very much doubt they'll need to tell people not to buy new ICE cars at that point.


Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:06 am
Profile
What's a life?
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:26 pm
Posts: 17040
Reply with quote
BTW, this

Tesla Solar Roof

is a sodding brilliant idea.


Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:42 am
Profile
What's a life?
User avatar

Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 10:21 am
Posts: 12700
Location: The Right Side of the Pennines (metaphorically & geographically)
Reply with quote
They'd better start rolling out H2 at petrol stations then, because I don't want a crappy battery car with it's unpredictable range, long recharge times, and shorty (battery) life cycle.

_________________
pcernie wrote:
'I'm going to snort this off your arse - for the benefit of government statistics, of course.'


Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:11 pm
Profile WWW
What's a life?
User avatar

Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 10:21 am
Posts: 12700
Location: The Right Side of the Pennines (metaphorically & geographically)
Reply with quote
Actually why am I bothered? I'll just buy a new one before they're banned and make it lasts until I die.

_________________
pcernie wrote:
'I'm going to snort this off your arse - for the benefit of government statistics, of course.'


Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:13 pm
Profile WWW
What's a life?
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:26 pm
Posts: 17040
Reply with quote
l3v1ck wrote:
They'd better start rolling out H2 at petrol stations then, because I don't want a crappy battery car with it's unpredictable range, long recharge times, and shorty (battery) life cycle.

I'm afraid you're a bit behind the times, there's optimism on all those. Battery life cycles have actually turned out to be much better than expectations. It generally was assumed that batteries would have a working life of between 5 and 8 years, but there are plenty of first gen electric cars tootling around with a battery capacity still at or around 90% of 'day one' spec. The batteries have just turned out to be much hardier than people expected them to be. There's still massive issues to resolve related to rare earth production and recycling when the vehicles are scrapped, to be fair.

The recharge times are still more than petrol vehicles but they're much better than they were - there are now 'superchargers' at pretty much every motorway services station for example that will get most electric cars up to say 75% capacity - which on a new ev car today is probably going to be 200 miles ish - in 10-15 minutes. So just enough time to take a leak and grab a snack. Which you'll probably need if you've just driven 200 miles...

As to range anxiety, yes still an issue but less so as battery capacity increases. If you have a battery that's "100 miles if you're careful, 40 if you're not and it's 60 miles to the nearest charging point" - which definitely WAS true at one point- then yes, fair enough. If it's "250 miles if you're careful, 220 miles if you're not and there's a charging point every 50 miles or so", then frankly the only time you'll have a problem is if you're almost intentionally careless.

I'm not saying these things were never a problem, because they were. But the technology has come on literally in leaps, even over the last five years or so, simply because the auto manufacturers have figured out it's something that is going to happen and they've been throwing billions and billions of pounds into research around this stuff . Five years ago, about the only decent EV car you could buy was a Tesla S P40. It had a range of 150 miles and cost £90,000. This year (well, next, cos of the waiting list) you'll be able to buy a Tesla 3 P90. It has a range of 230 miles and will cost £30,000. Or a Golf GTE, which has a similar spec and price. There's only one way this is going. Five years from now you'll be able to get a car that does 300 miles on a charge and costs £15,000. And five years after that, it'll be 400 miles and it'll cost the same as a Vauxhall Corsa. And at that point, given charging up your EV costs pennies, you pay no road tax and have a multi-year service intervals you'd have to be completely off your tree to buy an ICE car instead.

I agree that the major sticking point isn't the vehicles, it's the support infrastructure. All the places where you can't fit supercharger points or where people don't have garages.This is why I think dispersing it is the best way forward. But to be honest if you actually think setting up a nationwide H2 refilling network is ANY easier than creating a viable nationwide EV charging network, you're not considering just how fractious a substance H2 at pressure is.

Volvo aren't stopping production of pure ICE cars by 2020 just because they're Scandinavian and they do that kind of thing (although it partly is), They're doing it because they think making purely petrol/diesel cars won't make them enough money at that point to make it worth carrying on doing so.

I saw a statistic today. From the time the first 'horseless carriage' was sold in America, to the point where over 50% of all journeys in the US were made by 'car'.. how long do you think that took? 15 years. Change happens faster than you think. How many of us had broadband 15 years ago? None of us had smartphones. Skype was still science fiction. This will happen. Maybe H2 cells are better, but it's looking very much like EV cars will get to 'good enough for 95% of people' before H2 gets any momentum. Which means it may never take off at all.

Jonathan


Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:46 pm
Profile
What's a life?
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 8:46 pm
Posts: 10022
Reply with quote
I kind of agree with jonbwfc up until road tax. The Govt gets a huge amount of income from VAT on fuel and from road tax/VED. There is no way they will simply write it off. I suspect that we will be paying per mile, as well as raising road tax.

For me to change to EV, I'd want to be able to use the car like my current petrol ICE. ie do about 300-400 miles without refuelling, and for refuelling to take a few minutes. Having to refuel every 200 miles will be limiting for when I do long journeys.

_________________
Image
He fights for the users.


Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:29 am
Profile
I haven't seen my friends in so long
User avatar

Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 6:37 am
Posts: 6954
Location: Peebo
Reply with quote
cloaked_wolf wrote:
I kind of agree with jonbwfc up until road tax. The Govt gets a huge amount of income from VAT on fuel and from road tax/VED. There is no way they will simply write it off. I suspect that we will be paying per mile, as well as raising road tax.

For me to change to EV, I'd want to be able to use the car like my current petrol ICE. ie do about 300-400 miles without refuelling, and for refuelling to take a few minutes. Having to refuel every 200 miles will be limiting for when I do long journeys.

Indeed. The tax exemptions for electric and hybrid vehicles won't last, at some point the government will start taxing them in some way similar to current road tax. It'll potentially be far harder to tax the 'fuel' on EV's though as any tax on electricity will also apply to what people use at home which is likely to be untenable.
A per mile tax that replaces VED and fuel tax is a likely option, especially as cars become more connected to the internet in general and are also likely to have sat nav type features which allow reasonably accurate mileage tracking. An alternative would be to bill people when they get their car MOT'd although that route would probably require some form of monthly payment plan.

One thing that did occur to me about electric vehicles is how much ozone they generate. We're all worrying about NOx and particulates from ICE vehicles and while these aren't an issue for EV's the motors will presumably still produce some ozone which, at ground level, is also an undesirable gas to have floating around in much the same way as NOx in terms of health effects. Are there any figures for the amount of ozone put out by the electric motors in EV's?

_________________
When they put teeth in your mouth, they spoiled a perfectly good bum.
-Billy Connolly (to a heckler)


Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:49 am
Profile
What's a life?
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:26 pm
Posts: 17040
Reply with quote
davrosG5 wrote:
Indeed. The tax exemptions for electric and hybrid vehicles won't last, at some point the government will start taxing them in some way similar to current road tax. It'll potentially be far harder to tax the 'fuel' on EV's though as any tax on electricity will also apply to what people use at home which is likely to be untenable.
A per mile tax that replaces VED and fuel tax is a likely option, especially as cars become more connected to the internet in general and are also likely to have sat nav type features which allow reasonably accurate mileage tracking. An alternative would be to bill people when they get their car MOT'd although that route would probably require some form of monthly payment plan.

IIRC the tax breaks/refunds etc for buying an EV have pretty much gone already, or are very soon going to. And how the government will replace the roughly £30b they make on petrol duty/VED/VAT etc. hasn't been decided, and there's no real consensus yet that this will be taken from drivers in some sort of straight substitution. It seems logical to do so but 'It seems logical' is one of those sayings that often doesn't apply to government policy. We have no idea what sort of government we'll have from say 2030 onwards so...

davrosG5 wrote:
One thing that did occur to me about electric vehicles is how much ozone they generate. We're all worrying about NOx and particulates from ICE vehicles and while these aren't an issue for EV's the motors will presumably still produce some ozone which, at ground level, is also an undesirable gas to have floating around in much the same way as NOx in terms of health effects. Are there any figures for the amount of ozone put out by the electric motors in EV's?

Not that I've been able to find. I suspect there's significant variation depending on engine design and the degree to which they are air cooled as oppose to radiator cooled (Teslas for example have no radiators at all as far as I can see). Assuming we're talking about sparking in the engine as it turns over rather than some way ozone is generated when charging. I've seen one paper that ran a simulation of urban areas of a couple of cities in Texas, the results of which suggested ozone levels actually dropped when 20% of journeys were done by EV. However that doesn't really help much if you're not in Texas, or if more than 20% of journeys are in EVs.

I'd venture to assume that an EV car emits a lot less ozone at ground level than an ICE does NO, particulates etc but that's not considering the relative amounts of damage those emissions cause... Intuitively I think we're still likely to be better off but there doesn't seem to be enough evidence to say if there's an issue of harm there. I think maybe we need a certain amount of regular EV journeys before the data is reliable anyway?

Jonathan


Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:12 am
Profile
What's a life?
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 8:25 pm
Posts: 10691
Location: Bramsche
Reply with quote
Maybe they should do it sooner, at least for diesels... Germany has banned the registration of new Porsche Cayennes, as it has now been proven that they also use the cheat software that VAG was using.

And Mercedes, VW, BMW, Audi and Porsche turned themselves in last week to the Cartell Office, claiming that they colluded to fix part prices from suppliers and on emissions - for example Mercedes tried to set a standard for AdBlue, claiming that the tanks would be too big, if the technology was used properly, so they colluded to reduce the amount of AdBlue used, so that they could retain smaller tanks...

The motor industry is so far up its own rear end at the moment, they deserve a good shake up...

_________________
"Do you know what this is? Hmm? No, I can see you do not. You have that vacant look in your eyes, which says hold my head to your ear, you will hear the sea!" - Londo Molari

Executive Producer No Agenda Show 246


Thu Jul 27, 2017 6:01 pm
Profile ICQ
What's a life?
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 8:25 pm
Posts: 10691
Location: Bramsche
Reply with quote
cloaked_wolf wrote:
I kind of agree with jonbwfc up until road tax. The Govt gets a huge amount of income from VAT on fuel and from road tax/VED. There is no way they will simply write it off. I suspect that we will be paying per mile, as well as raising road tax.

For me to change to EV, I'd want to be able to use the car like my current petrol ICE. ie do about 300-400 miles without refuelling, and for refuelling to take a few minutes. Having to refuel every 200 miles will be limiting for when I do long journeys.

I'd revolt at refuelling every 400 miles, I get around 750 from a tank. That was enough to drive on holiday and drive around whilst there and refuel before driving home, then a week of work afterwards, before having to refuel again...

Seriously though, taxation will have to change. They still need the money for infrastructure and other things.

In Germany, they are planning to bring in a toll for motorways.

_________________
"Do you know what this is? Hmm? No, I can see you do not. You have that vacant look in your eyes, which says hold my head to your ear, you will hear the sea!" - Londo Molari

Executive Producer No Agenda Show 246


Thu Jul 27, 2017 6:08 pm
Profile ICQ
What's a life?
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:26 pm
Posts: 17040
Reply with quote
big_D wrote:
I'd revolt at refuelling every 400 miles, I get around 750 from a tank.

seriously? you'd rather pay say 60 euros for a 750 mile petrol fill up than say 10 euros total for 2 400 mile electric fill ups?

Quote:
Seriously though, taxation will have to change. They still need the money for infrastructure and other things.

Well, we wouldn't need at EV infrastructure if we can develop systems that make people want to do it themselves. We were sat doing some back of a beer mat maths today at lunch (note: UK rough pricings, Germany may vary). Say a tesla roof thing or solar power equivalent costs £15K, including fitting and all the bits and pieces including battery and etc. However, If you own one, you become energy self-sufficient - you never have to pay for electricity or for petrol again. My electricity bill is about £75 a month, and my petrol bill is about £140 a month. Call it 200 quid a month for ease of calculation. That means I save 2400 quid a year. So the thing pays for itself in 7 years, more or less, and then I've got 200 quid a month in my pocket. Do you move house more often than once every seven years? I don't, and as long as that's true, this makes sense for me to do that and the government doesn't have to spend a penny to put in infrastructure to support it.

Even if your petrol costs are half mine, so say the total bill is £150 a month, it still means you'll be making money back after 9 years.

OK, let's not be coy here, this happening on a grand scale - say in the order of a million homes in the UK - would be a radical change to our society. Not only does it affect the state because of taxation drop, it will massively destabilise the current UK energy market, because you can't just take a million customers out of a market and have it carry on as before. And it would make nuclear power generation utterly uneconomic (assuming you don't believe it is already of course...).

Yes, as we've discussed, no fuel related taxes leaves a big hole in the finances of most developed countries.

But it is coming. Tesla solar roofs are going to be here very soon, or you can get an uglier solar panel equivalent now. Domestic storage batteries are here now. Electric vehicles with decent ranges are here now and will only get better. Widespread cheap charging stations are here, at least in the UK anyway. This stuff IS going to happen and the economic numbers are irrefutable. People will do this not because they like technology, or because they want to save the world, but because as it stands it will demonstrably save them money to do so.

Now, maybe things will happen so that the government claws that money back in other ways and we're no better off financially. But we'll still be better off in all sorts of other ways. Less pollution. Less noise for people living near busy roads. Less related illnesses. And on an airy fairy level we will be saving the world, or at least making it worse much less quickly.

As the cartoon I referenced said - "You mean we made the world a better place for nothing?"

big_D wrote:
In Germany, they are planning to bring in a toll for motorways.

Probably thinking the same in the UK too. Which begs the question - what are they planning in say France where they already have widespread motorway tolls? (Note: I don't know off the top of my head how much money, if any, the French government makes from vehicle and fuel related taxation).


Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:39 pm
Profile
What's a life?
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 8:25 pm
Posts: 10691
Location: Bramsche
Reply with quote
To the 750 miles, it depends, where I currently work, no, I wouldn't worry, 200 miles would mean tanking twice a week. If I was working like I did in the UK, then I'd need to tank at least when I got to work on a 200 mile range and for some of the sites where I worked, I would have to tank on the way to work...

I think you misunderstood infrastructure. The electric "tanking" stations will be the same as current fuel stations, they are not considered infrastructure that the government ocncerns itself with (apart from ensuring that they are at regular intervals when building new motorway). I am talking about the roads themselves. Without the tax from fuel, there will be a huge drop in revenue for maintaining existing roads and building new roads - and the roads will probably need to be updated with sensors and transmitters to communicate with vehicles - for example telling them about diversions, road blocks etc. (cars will communicate with each other as well to warn of accidents or traffic jams, but diversions etc. will need to be transmitted to the cars from the infrastructure.

The money raised by fuel duty also goes to a lot of other areas, such as health, defence etc. (which I think is wrong, money raised on the roads should be used for the roads). That money will need to be raised from elsewhere in the future.

_________________
"Do you know what this is? Hmm? No, I can see you do not. You have that vacant look in your eyes, which says hold my head to your ear, you will hear the sea!" - Londo Molari

Executive Producer No Agenda Show 246


Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:53 am
Profile ICQ
Doesn't have much of a life
User avatar

Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2009 9:33 am
Posts: 667
Reply with quote
Tax is tax. It doesn't really matter where it comes from so long as enough money is raised to fund government spending. If one source of revenue from tax falls because peoples lifestyles/habits change then governments simply find something else to tax or increase in tax to compensate.

It will all work out in the end.

_________________
UltraSonic f***erPhonic ZombieShockin TrailerRockin BabyBoomin GaitorGroomin InterStellar LadyRaiders


Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:39 am
Profile WWW
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 33 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3  Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Designed by ST Software.